January 30, 2006
January 26, 2006
Hamas Won – Where from Here
Update:
Radio Open Source, doing a piece on Hamas tonight, is looking to “gather opinion before the show and then introduce it to the guests on-air.” Get on over there and say your piece.

Just yesterday I copied a piece by Guy Raz of CNN that argued an interesting flip side of the “dreaded outcome” we now face. Correlating that Israel’s promotion of Arial Sharon in 2000 to the top job despite his “eating Arabs for breakfast” appalled the Arab world yet yielded some of the most significant steps towards peace (for a fairly typical Arab perspective click here). Steps none of the Israeli “doves” could have taken.
The situation in Palestine and, subsequently, the choice of the people, have another more obvious parallel; the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt - Both evoking the emotions of a people in dire straights, benefiting from the gravitation of people in those circumstance to ideologies, and representatives of the only viable alternative to a corrupt government. Hamas builds schools, clinics, and shelters. Hamas is intertwined in the people and amongst them. More importantly though, Hamas will not bend to others will; and that image is an opportunity. As only Sharon could have pulled off Gaza only Hamas can accept it.
Whatever Hamas the bad ass, accepts in terms of negotiations, the majority of the Palestinians on the ground will accept.
The terrorist organization has become the government. They can no longer hide under the pretence of splinter guerrilla factions. The next attack will be a formal declaration of war between two nations. Any advantage Hamas may have had under those pretences are now gone. Their old methods don’t stand a chance in this new paradigm shift.
I have warned before that now, with the Israelis out of Gaza, the casualties in Palestine could be much higher. Also, depending on how Israel votes a couple of months from now could mean the reoccupation of Gaza (under a Netanyahu lead “security” agenda of course) and from there an inevitable third Intifada with another decade until the next chance.
Will the outcome of Palestinian policy be a preview of coming Egyptian theatrics? Can a radical theological party with roots in terrorism be brought into the mainstream as the real voice of the people or is a good example.
This issue is a central tangent I have been in pursuit of for as long as I can remember. An example of this is well illustrated in the first question I recently put to Professor Noam Chomsky in an interview I gave him for the January 2006 issue of Egypt Today:
“Many feel that the first true democratic election in will be its last. This is on the bases that though a democratic process can help a group running on a religious platform attain power, the resulting conflict between said group’s baseline and democracy will prevent it from continuing such a process further than the election it just won. How does one deal with such a predicament or, as some see it, paradox? Also, since this all done under the strife for democracy, is there a democratic, “democratic process” that can prevent such an occurrence? And with that in mind, how do you feel about the Muslim Brotherhoods recent growth in the Egyptian Parliament?”
How does one balance between desire for socio-theocratic desires and the twenty-first century’s crucial economic secularism? Elitism? Autocracy? Parasitic lopsided quasi-democracies that serve world powers? More importantly how or should one go about implementing policy that is for the good of the people but against their aspirations?
Start your rants.
-Karim Elsahy
January 25, 2006
More constructive naivety
We -- you, me, and the rest of the world -- have been voyeurs to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict for a long time.
We have the privilege (most of us, at least) of watching it from afar, wistfully and (sometimes naively) wondering why it can't simply be resolved.
It can't be resolved so simply because it combines the complex factors of competing histories, blood, religion, and above all, land.
But what has made this conflict so different in the past year is that, by and large, both sides want it ended.
And, broadly speaking again, both sides have strikingly similar ideas of how to end it.
In simple terms, again, Israelis and Palestinians -- for different reasons -- have reached a level of political maturity almost unprecedented in the world of international conflict.
Israelis look set to elect a broadly centrist political movement to lead the country when they go to the polls in late March.
Palestinians went to the polls demanding their next government serve them better.
How the next Palestinian Cabinet will look is still unclear. We do not know if the mainstream Fatah movement will be forced to form a governing coalition with the more radical (and often rejectionist) Hamas movement. What we do know is that Israel, an otherwise familiar player in Palestinian political rhetoric, was largely a bit-part player in these elections.
Palestinians are growing weary of blaming all their ails on Israel.
They are politically savvy enough to know that for 10 years, their government didn't serve them as best it could.
Even under occupation, there are many things a government can do. It can improve education, raise living standards, strengthen internal security, operate in a transparent manner, and, above all, not steal from the public coffers.
On all these accounts, the Palestinian government under Fatah hasn't lived up to its potential.
And that's what would likely push Palestinian voters to punish the movement founded by the late Yasser Arafat.
At the same time, some Palestinians likely won't vote for Hamas because of the group's decade-long campaign of suicide bombs.
In fact, a recent poll taken by esteemed Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki concludes that, for the first time, the overwhelming majority of Palestinians oppose violent attacks against Israelis.
Thus, if Palestinians vote for Hamas in large numbers, it would signal desire for a change -- to see whether the Islamist movement can hold the dominant Fatah movement accountable for its actions.
Israel, of course, is worried about this. Hamas, at least officially, is committed to Israel's destruction. The group doesn't recognize Israel, and most of its top leaders have suggested they're not interested in negotiating peace with Israel.
But consider this: When Israelis voted for Ariel Sharon to lead their government in 2000, most of the Arab world was appalled.
They remembered Sharon as the general who led Israel's bloody and disastrous invasion of Lebanon, and the man who was a determined opponent of Palestinian self-determination.
But it wasn't an Israeli "peacenik" like Shimon Peres who withdrew Jewish settlers from occupied land.
It was Sharon who did it. And it was Sharon, more than any current Israeli politician, who brought the two parties closer to a two-state solution.
The question now, of course, is whether Israel's fears of a Hamas-heavy government will prove founded, or whether the group will provide a surprise of its own, and head to the negotiating table.
- Guy Raz for CNN
Please Email President Bush
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January 12, 2006
Munich
I came away with something very interesting. In relation to my position of “sides” concerning the Palestinian Israeli issue I always thought of people that ask “What the hell are these people (both sides) fighting for?” as people that just don’t get it.
I mean people on my side are fighting for what they lost. Fighting for a home, a land, and self determination. Tangible soil, the (granted often hypothetical) groves of their fathers, and a truly irreplaceable haven stemmed from an historic lineage. Something you just can’t explain to someone that has it. How do you explain inherited concrete homes signed and allocated upon marriage to someone that can get up and move three or four times in a lifetime; you can’t.
The same goes for the Israelis. If I were a Jew I probably would have been just as adamant about Israel. A chance to live under their own rule after millennia of Diaspora and persecution? Of course I understand that inherent need; again the need for self determination. Simply taking it under the clause of a divine oration is wrong but that wouldn’t have mattered. History is written by the victors and in a few generations the way it was attained would be viewed with the same superficial remorse most Americans view the natives they dispersed.
Still I understand the position. I am also confident that there are many non extreme Israelis that genuinely understand the Arab position and visa versa. Everyone else just doesn’t get it.
So I thought.
After watching that movie (It might not have even been because of the actual movie, perhaps the setting that set the train of thought. Amazing what you pick up from Hollywood. This post is another good related example) I had this daunting Neo-figuring-out-the-Matrix feeling I couldn’t shake. What if we (the Arabs and the Jews) were the ones that didn’t get it? Securely wrapped in the confidence of our own self virtue what if we are the ignorant. What if there really is nothing worth fighting for.
People desire desire itself. Philosophy 101. What if we have succumbed to the actual desire of what it is we both cherish so dearly. What if there is a way to life, happy and fulfilled, detached from these desires. And if there is would we allow each other the perception of defeat in pursuit of such lives?
Round one has been over for decades. Israel isn’t going anywhere as reflected by every Arab faction that isn’t in denial. The Palestinians aren’t going anywhere either. I have argued before that there are only two ways this will end by the end of this round two. Round two dictates that neither side can let up. The moment one does it will be swept under. The alternative is a gradual psychological disarmament and coexistence.
I am now left with need to study the viability of this new alternative. Or maybe it’s nothing.
-Karim Elsahy
January 09, 2006
January 06, 2006
American Tableaux Manners Egyptian Style
I rarely link to other people’s posts without context but this one by Dan Varisco, I feel, stands alone. It is sufficient to look at his blog title to gauge his understanding. It is easily the most simple and eloquently correct criticism and description of today’s Islam and Middle East I have ever heard. "Tabsir: Insight on Islam and the Middle East"
Tabsir is an Arabic word that means “waste in excess” usually used to describe excessive monetary waste by the ultra rich.

January 04, 2006
Sharons Heart
I never thought I would pray for Ariel Sharon but I do now. Not now. Not yet.
January 03, 2006
January Issue of ET
The edited and published version of the Chomsky interview can be found here. I have issues with the editorial process at Egypt Today; so much so that I almost quit after a mishap over last months column. I am also not the one that adds those little captions either.
“The man who’s a Zionist but stands up against Israeli policy in a no-holds-barred interview about democracy in the Middle East and the West’s role here” for example.







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