January 26, 2006

Hamas Won – Where from Here

 

Update:

Radio Open Source, doing a piece on Hamas tonight, is looking to “gather opinion before the show and then introduce it to the guests on-air.” Get on over there and say your piece.

 





Just yesterday I copied a piece by Guy Raz of CNN that argued an interesting flip side of the “dreaded outcome” we now face. Correlating that Israel’s promotion of Arial Sharon in 2000 to the top job despite his “eating Arabs for breakfast” appalled the Arab world yet yielded some of the most significant steps towards peace (for a fairly typical Arab perspective click here). Steps none of the Israeli “doves” could have taken.

The situation in Palestine and, subsequently, the choice of the people, have another more obvious parallel; the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt - Both evoking the emotions of a people in dire straights, benefiting from the gravitation of people in those circumstance to ideologies, and representatives of the only viable alternative to a corrupt government. Hamas builds schools, clinics, and shelters. Hamas is intertwined in the people and amongst them. More importantly though, Hamas will not bend to others will; and that image is an opportunity. As only Sharon could have pulled off Gaza only Hamas can accept it.

Whatever Hamas the bad ass, accepts in terms of negotiations, the majority of the Palestinians on the ground will accept.

The terrorist organization has become the government. They can no longer hide under the pretence of splinter guerrilla factions. The next attack will be a formal declaration of war between two nations. Any advantage Hamas may have had under those pretences are now gone. Their old methods don’t stand a chance in this new paradigm shift.

I have warned before that now, with the Israelis out of Gaza, the casualties in Palestine could be much higher. Also, depending on how Israel votes a couple of months from now could mean the reoccupation of Gaza (under a Netanyahu lead “security” agenda of course) and from there an inevitable third Intifada with another decade until the next chance.

Will the outcome of Palestinian policy be a preview of coming Egyptian theatrics? Can a radical theological party with roots in terrorism be brought into the mainstream as the real voice of the people or is a good example.

This issue is a central tangent I have been in pursuit of for as long as I can remember. An example of this is well illustrated in the first question I recently put to Professor Noam Chomsky in an interview I gave him for the January 2006 issue of Egypt Today:

“Many feel that the first true democratic election in will be its last. This is on the bases that though a democratic process can help a group running on a religious platform attain power, the resulting conflict between said group’s baseline and democracy will prevent it from continuing such a process further than the election it just won. How does one deal with such a predicament or, as some see it, paradox? Also, since this all done under the strife for democracy, is there a democratic, “democratic process” that can prevent such an occurrence? And with that in mind, how do you feel about the Muslim Brotherhoods recent growth in the Egyptian Parliament?”

How does one balance between desire for socio-theocratic desires and the twenty-first century’s crucial economic secularism? Elitism? Autocracy? Parasitic lopsided quasi-democracies that serve world powers? More importantly how or should one go about implementing policy that is for the good of the people but against their aspirations?

Start your rants.


-Karim Elsahy
Posted by Karim Elsahy at 10:32:06 | Permanent Link | Comments (15) |
Comments
1 - "The next attack will be a formal declaration of war between two nations."

Great. So presumably some other organisation will now run the unofficial attacks against Israel and nothing will change.

This war can only end when whoever runs Arab Palestine assumes responsibility for ALL attacks against Israel, just like any other government in the world is responsible for its citizens' acts from within its own borders.

And the same goes to Lebanon and their "resistance". Somehow it's always ok to attack, when the target is Israel. (Comment this)

Written by: Andrew Brehm at 2006/01/26 - 10:42:35
2 - Karim, kifaya. Enough of this. The next act of terror against Israel will be a formal declaration of war no matter who does it. If the Palestinians want collective self determination, let them accept collective responsibility. (Comment this)

Written by: Omri at 2006/01/26 - 12:43:46
3 - My scenarion goes more or less along these lines:

Stage 1: Israel removes some of the settlemets, finishes the fence (wall in others' terms), waits. Hamas rants.

Stage 2: Hamas starts some politically correct changes in its agenda (at least for public consumption). US/EU increase pressure on Israel to start talking with Hamas

Stage 3: The parties are forced to negotiate...

The above is spread over quite a few years, and it would be foolish of me to foresee the outcome.

P.S. Reoccupation of Gaza by Bibi is not an option, IMHO. I think that you overestimate his big mouth. He has more bark than bite, as we have learned already. (Comment this)

Written by: snoopythegoon at 2006/01/27 - 09:25:02
4 - Is Hamas going to demand that Israel tear down the fence? (Comment this)

Written by: Mike at 2006/01/27 - 12:42:08
5 - Regardless of the outcome, this a necessary step for the Palestinians to evolve and understand the consequences of their choices.

The kind of marketing Hamas used, and before them the brotherhood in Egypt is very attractive to the common people and seldom has any substance beneath the surface, yet people still vote for them because there's an agonizing void in the political landscape that these groups seem to fill through their involvement in public life.

The real test is about to start and the question you pose at the end of your post regarding balance between "socio-theocratic desires" and the "twenty-first century’s crucial economic secularism? Elitism? Autocracy?" is about to put to the test big-time.

BTW, I came across your blog by accident and I'm glad I did. Its always refreshing to share thoughts and ideas about Home. (Comment this)

Written by: AhmedT at 2006/01/27 - 21:44:20
6 - This is an unqualified disaster. Hamas will probably maintain the truce for a while, but will use their power and increased legitimacy to further ingrain radical Islam into Palestinian society, pushing the possibility of peaceful coexistence farther and farther into the future. There are no good options now, no options that do not involve lots of pain and spilled blood.

I do not share the optimism of those who postulate that Hamas being in power and responsible for decisions will force them to become more moderate. This hasn't happened in any Middle East country where Islamists have come to power; Iran is as violent and radical as ever; the Islamists in the Sudan had to be overthrown; the Saudi political elite has moderated somewhat but the KSA's Wahhabi roots are as murderous as ever; in Lebanon Hizbullah's inclusion in the government has not shaken their allegiance to Iran and Syria, in fact they left the government because it was standing up to Syrian assassinations.

I don't accept the "only Nixan could go to China"/"only Sharon could leave Gaza" argument either. Although Sharon had a history callousness toward Arabs, he was always different from Hamas in a crucial way - Sharon's violence was stratgic, not ideological. He supported the settlements to take land he felt Israel needed, not becuase he believed in the radical ideology of Israel's extremist Jews. Given that Israel's destruction is Hamas' <em>raison d'etre</em>, I frankly find it very unlikely that they would ever engage in serious negotiations, and Israel would be foolish to allow them to build up power while they engage in Iran-style "talks about talks" with no substance. (Comment this)

Written by: Kirk H. Sowell at 2006/01/28 - 01:47:02
7 - Before them the brotherhood in Egypt is very attractive to the common people and seldom has any substance beneath the surface, yet people still vote for them because there's an agonizing void in the political landscape that these groups seem to fill through their involvement in public life. (Comment this)

Written by: Chris Tacker at 2007/01/28 - 13:40:59
8 - This hasn't happened in any Middle East country where Islamists have come to power; Iran is as violent and radical as ever; the Islamists in the Sudan had to be overthrown; the Saudi political elite has moderated somewhat but the KSA's Wahhabi roots are as murderous as ever; in Lebanon Hizbullah's inclusion in the government has not shaken their allegiance to Iran and Syria. (Comment this)

Written by: Ken Dryden at 2007/02/27 - 15:55:57
9 - ابغى حلو انيكه يكون عمره 16 الى 23 فقط حلو يعني حلو رجاء اهل الشحن والبطاقات لا يتصلون يتصل علي وانا عندي شقه فاضيه كل اربعاء الى ظهر الجمعه فقط واللي بيتصل علي يجي بتفسه وانا ما راح اقصر معه اهم حاجه السريه
0561273300
adel1424a@yahoo.com (Comment this)

Written by: وليد at 2007/03/20 - 22:20:42
10 - يا بنات سوريا ممكن تراسلوني على الايميل waseemkna@JAWAB.COM او على جوالي 097420106 (Comment this)

Written by: وسيم at 2007/03/20 - 22:39:19
11 - بنات سورية ناطركم على 097420106 او على الايميل waseemkna@jawab.com عمري 25 (Comment this)

Written by: وسيم at 2007/03/20 - 22:45:16
12 - همكن انتك (Comment this)

Written by: Anonymous at 2007/04/28 - 03:45:30
13 - انا شب حلو من الرياض ابي ورع اهم شي يكون نحيف متلي انا موجب بدي سالب 0569244084 (Comment this)

Written by: سعد at 2007/04/28 - 03:50:10
14 - .. عندي صوووور ورعاااااان وافلام ..

.. وكل ما يخطر على بالك ..

.. بشرط التبادل ..

..من يرغب يعمل اضافة ..

mr.3b0di@hotmail.com (Comment this)

Written by: عبودي at 2007/05/03 - 21:51:58
15 - ابي واحد انيكه ويمصلي اشفشفة وامتعه (Comment this)

Written by: Anonymous at 2007/06/04 - 20:24:49
Write a comment