New dawn or more of the same?

Mr Mubarak's party, still firmly in charge, has a two-pronged strategy to stay in power. The Brotherhood's success lets the NDP pose as the only alternative to Islamist rule, a stance that appeals to Egypt's worried Christian minority as well as to secular Muslims, many businessmen and also, presumably, many western allies. Mr Nour's imprisonment and the government's unwillingness to license a long-proposed centrist Islamist party hint that the regime actually wants to keep Egyptian politics polarised.

The other prong is economic. Egypt has pursued liberalising reforms since the 1970s, but the government's commitment has often wavered, due to concerns, for example, that privatisation of state assets would weaken the government's power to coerce workers or supply cosy sinecures to loyal officers. That hesitancy has lessened: witness the naming of a new cabinet dominated by prominent businessmen rather than party stalwarts or ex-army men. With Egyptian coffers filling nicely from gas exports, record Suez Canal tolls and booming tourism, the bet is that economic growth will remain a buffer against social upheaval. Maybe. But then some revolutions—in Iran or France, for instance—came along just when middle-class expectations were rising.